* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/13/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 61 67 75 80 80 76 69 63 55 52 51 51 52 52 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 61 67 75 80 80 76 69 63 55 52 51 51 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 61 66 77 84 83 77 68 59 51 44 41 39 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 5 2 4 0 4 5 9 9 8 7 9 12 20 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 1 2 4 2 3 4 5 7 8 6 3 2 6 3 SHEAR DIR 42 33 16 34 59 74 180 109 115 98 114 100 116 114 127 137 167 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 28.5 27.1 26.3 25.9 25.5 24.6 23.7 24.2 24.8 25.5 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 156 156 157 149 135 127 123 119 110 101 107 113 119 123 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 57 55 54 48 44 34 29 27 25 23 20 20 21 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 14 14 17 18 20 19 19 16 13 9 7 5 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 8 8 13 12 19 27 34 37 49 42 38 30 27 28 33 39 22 200 MB DIV 54 70 69 51 38 20 0 -15 -23 -44 -27 -29 -10 -5 5 -5 -16 700-850 TADV -3 0 1 0 0 -1 2 -1 0 2 7 -1 6 3 5 5 6 LAND (KM) 1008 1039 1077 1111 1151 1238 1321 1432 1581 1758 1954 2195 1936 1593 1267 979 739 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.6 116.5 117.3 118.0 119.5 121.3 123.1 125.6 128.1 130.6 133.4 136.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 19 21 23 23 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 22. 30. 35. 35. 31. 24. 18. 10. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 114.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/13/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 12.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.53 6.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -8.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.92 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.9% 46.5% 40.2% 31.5% 15.5% 41.2% 51.2% 34.0% Logistic: 6.3% 18.0% 14.7% 7.9% 1.8% 7.2% 1.0% 1.5% Bayesian: 2.1% 10.0% 3.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 24.8% 19.5% 13.6% 5.8% 16.3% 17.4% 11.8% DTOPS: 16.0% 49.0% 29.0% 26.0% 18.0% 41.0% 54.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/13/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##