* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 08/13/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 53 60 65 65 64 61 60 60 60 60 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 53 60 65 65 64 61 60 60 60 60 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 41 44 49 55 58 59 58 54 52 50 50 49 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 10 8 11 7 4 8 7 9 8 12 13 12 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -5 -9 -1 0 1 0 4 3 -1 -1 -3 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 111 111 91 85 105 113 179 232 241 281 300 326 310 299 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 26.7 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.7 27.2 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 142 141 142 142 132 137 134 132 131 132 137 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 60 59 63 61 56 53 54 51 45 43 43 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 14 14 15 13 13 12 9 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 6 13 14 12 19 25 12 0 -5 -7 -9 -16 -11 -12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 57 73 54 3 -22 0 20 1 14 0 -4 -24 -16 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2109 1990 1873 1761 1651 1444 1208 957 754 592 550 653 868 1080 1232 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 19 24 21 9 8 11 3 5 3 15 19 5 16 39 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 27. 33. 36. 39. 42. 42. 43. 42. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 30. 35. 35. 34. 31. 30. 30. 30. 30. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 137.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 08/13/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 22.3% 18.7% 16.0% 0.0% 20.3% 16.8% 13.7% Logistic: 4.2% 22.3% 10.7% 5.3% 5.8% 3.7% 4.9% 17.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 15.6% 10.0% 7.2% 2.0% 8.0% 7.3% 10.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 14.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 7.0% 10.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 08/13/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##