* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 08/16/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 36 46 57 77 97 113 122 123 113 102 86 70 53 48 53 V (KT) LAND 25 29 36 46 57 77 97 113 122 123 113 102 86 70 53 48 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 32 37 52 77 113 138 135 108 79 57 38 23 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 15 9 8 6 6 2 2 5 6 8 8 4 6 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -5 -7 -6 -8 -3 -1 0 4 2 5 5 3 5 6 SHEAR DIR 23 17 43 44 36 12 51 58 71 76 113 172 180 133 115 100 181 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.9 30.3 30.2 28.6 25.4 24.4 22.5 21.0 19.3 18.4 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 162 163 165 163 165 169 168 151 118 107 87 72 61 60 60 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -50.2 -50.7 -49.5 -49.6 -48.3 -48.4 -47.8 -47.9 -48.1 -49.3 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 3 2 2 1 3 700-500 MB RH 86 86 86 86 87 88 85 82 78 75 66 56 50 42 39 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 21 25 28 34 40 45 48 51 47 43 34 26 11 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 69 60 54 67 68 60 84 103 122 120 137 113 110 76 72 18 14 200 MB DIV 86 96 112 153 192 151 204 183 145 108 96 18 50 -4 52 26 15 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -5 -5 -6 -6 -4 -8 1 3 9 11 7 -11 8 14 15 LAND (KM) 611 630 643 643 650 603 588 628 537 463 345 264 127 146 186 197 119 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 25 30 33 23 23 32 30 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 18. 26. 32. 35. 37. 38. 37. 35. 33. 35. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 33. 42. 45. 39. 32. 19. 8. -6. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 10. 2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 21. 32. 52. 72. 88. 97. 98. 88. 77. 61. 45. 28. 23. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 99.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 08/16/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 9.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -18.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.93 -7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.84 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 70% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 34.1% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 33.9% 70.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 23.0% 7.0% 3.6% 3.4% 20.1% 80.1% 47.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.7% 3.3% 0.5% 0.4% 3.6% 20.8% 78.0% Consensus: 0.4% 21.3% 10.2% 1.4% 1.3% 19.2% 57.1% 41.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 35.0% 13.0% 6.0% 2.0% 31.0% 41.0% 93.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 08/16/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##