* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/16/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 34 30 28 26 23 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 38 34 30 28 26 23 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 37 31 28 26 23 21 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 9 7 5 7 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 6 8 9 6 4 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 110 122 125 107 113 74 117 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.2 25.3 24.9 24.7 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 129 130 126 117 113 111 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 36 35 34 31 29 26 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 15 14 13 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 58 62 63 58 57 42 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -35 -24 -2 -7 -17 -24 -6 11 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 0 -2 4 2 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1757 1870 1984 2090 2199 2080 1786 1518 1217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.8 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.3 128.7 130.1 131.4 132.7 135.3 138.1 140.7 143.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -15. -17. -19. -22. -24. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.8 127.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/16/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/16/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##