* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/17/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 50 58 64 65 64 59 53 49 47 46 44 46 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 50 58 64 65 64 59 53 49 47 46 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 39 45 51 54 55 54 51 47 44 43 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 11 9 7 4 12 6 13 22 30 35 34 26 27 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 4 3 1 0 3 3 0 0 -6 -5 -4 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 45 35 11 45 29 13 124 168 230 244 242 241 250 256 259 261 267 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.9 26.9 26.5 26.7 26.5 27.0 26.8 27.2 27.3 27.8 28.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 148 148 144 134 121 118 120 120 126 123 127 129 135 137 144 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 72 68 62 59 56 52 54 53 47 47 47 49 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 15 17 17 18 19 16 15 13 11 10 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 58 55 55 50 60 45 65 75 46 2 0 -24 -34 -50 -60 200 MB DIV 97 94 103 111 100 104 31 19 16 -2 13 -12 2 0 6 5 1 700-850 TADV -18 -16 -14 -9 -10 -4 0 1 7 15 15 19 12 12 5 2 3 LAND (KM) 835 940 1016 1096 1158 1254 1315 1391 1439 1565 1784 2062 2310 2265 2063 1878 1776 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.3 16.4 17.7 19.2 20.9 22.7 24.3 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.0 26.1 26.9 27.7 28.3 29.2 29.7 30.2 30.7 32.1 34.2 36.8 39.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 6 6 6 8 9 12 14 14 12 12 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 17 26 30 32 17 4 2 7 3 4 5 6 9 20 17 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 22. 29. 36. 40. 42. 44. 43. 42. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -8. -13. -14. -15. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 2. -1. -4. -9. -11. -15. -17. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 25. 33. 39. 40. 39. 34. 28. 24. 22. 21. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 25.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/17/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 19.7% 12.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 15.3% 5.9% 2.7% 1.2% 4.6% 5.3% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 10.8% 2.9% 0.2% 0.3% 3.7% 8.6% 0.5% Consensus: 2.4% 15.3% 7.0% 3.4% 0.5% 2.8% 9.0% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/17/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 38 43 50 58 64 65 64 59 53 49 47 46 44 46 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 38 45 53 59 60 59 54 48 44 42 41 39 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 31 38 46 52 53 52 47 41 37 35 34 32 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 27 35 41 42 41 36 30 26 24 23 21 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT