* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/18/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 39 43 50 52 52 50 49 45 41 40 44 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 39 43 50 52 52 50 49 45 41 40 44 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 37 38 38 37 36 34 32 30 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 6 4 6 6 6 12 23 23 26 32 36 33 34 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 0 7 6 0 -3 0 8 5 4 0 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 200 217 158 170 134 179 187 206 227 261 283 267 292 290 300 318 302 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 125 124 124 120 122 126 125 123 124 126 127 128 129 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 65 64 57 54 52 49 50 50 50 53 56 55 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 15 14 14 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 27 34 39 55 48 84 69 56 31 10 -13 -18 -25 -20 -28 200 MB DIV 52 51 44 58 63 46 2 15 16 5 15 6 -21 8 55 14 12 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 -4 0 1 1 9 8 5 7 7 1 5 7 9 11 LAND (KM) 1468 1598 1695 1759 1813 1858 1894 1984 2089 2219 2299 2219 2104 2010 1961 2023 2047 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.5 17.0 18.2 19.5 21.0 22.2 23.3 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.2 32.4 33.3 33.9 34.4 34.8 35.1 35.8 37.0 38.4 39.9 41.3 42.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 7 5 4 2 5 8 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 13 19 22 21 18 16 17 17 17 17 12 9 10 18 25 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 26. 33. 37. 39. 40. 40. 40. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 6. 3. -2. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -21. -23. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 25. 27. 27. 25. 24. 20. 16. 15. 19. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 31.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/18/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 15.9% 10.9% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 8.8% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 8.7% 5.4% 2.7% 0.1% 0.9% 4.9% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/18/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 35 39 43 50 52 52 50 49 45 41 40 44 50 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 37 41 48 50 50 48 47 43 39 38 42 48 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 32 36 43 45 45 43 42 38 34 33 37 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 23 27 34 36 36 34 33 29 25 24 28 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT