* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092023 08/18/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 114 114 110 93 69 41 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 114 114 114 110 93 69 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 112 109 105 97 76 52 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 4 2 3 9 15 13 22 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 3 5 6 4 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 184 155 165 182 200 190 172 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 29.6 28.9 27.3 25.6 21.6 20.4 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 162 154 138 121 81 70 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.6 -50.1 -49.9 -49.4 -48.9 -49.1 -48.2 -48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 78 76 72 69 58 52 48 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 43 44 45 46 46 40 29 16 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 94 80 75 93 98 100 86 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 139 121 98 103 102 -3 28 60 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 6 8 7 9 8 10 -20 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 560 482 430 400 338 206 107 -13 -370 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.3 20.3 21.4 22.4 25.2 28.5 32.6 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.5 113.1 113.6 114.1 114.8 115.8 117.0 117.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 13 16 19 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 27 15 9 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -11. -28. -45. -50. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. 1. 6. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. -2. -13. -33. -54. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -5. -22. -46. -74. -90. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.2 111.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092023 HILARY 08/18/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.05 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.52 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.76 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 14.9% 11.2% 8.3% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.3% 3.8% 2.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092023 HILARY 08/18/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##