* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 08/19/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 46 54 58 61 63 65 67 68 69 72 73 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 46 54 58 61 63 46 50 51 52 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 32 35 37 40 33 38 41 44 48 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 12 12 6 9 11 13 9 14 8 13 13 6 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -6 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 4 0 1 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 314 304 293 259 281 277 253 265 256 252 256 281 307 350 351 79 85 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 158 156 151 153 159 158 160 161 156 154 154 158 161 157 151 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 10 8 10 9 9 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 61 60 63 64 63 63 65 68 66 64 65 63 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 73 73 69 67 56 64 60 60 44 42 19 -1 10 21 33 34 200 MB DIV 42 47 35 63 61 63 51 70 79 85 79 70 54 59 34 52 25 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 -4 -4 0 -1 2 1 4 2 4 6 7 11 12 -2 LAND (KM) 244 114 76 27 154 356 394 364 336 222 72 -28 67 177 293 368 622 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.2 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.2 16.3 17.7 19.3 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.8 60.1 61.4 62.7 64.9 66.5 67.8 68.6 69.3 69.8 70.1 69.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 9 8 5 5 7 8 7 4 9 12 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 52 44 49 37 26 40 52 61 76 86 68 62 73 75 67 41 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 24. 34. 42. 49. 53. 57. 59. 57. 57. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 26. 34. 38. 41. 43. 45. 47. 48. 49. 52. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 57.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 08/19/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.94 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.3% 41.7% 34.0% 14.9% 4.8% 13.1% 6.2% 7.8% Bayesian: 1.5% 6.2% 7.3% 1.2% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 2.7% Consensus: 3.9% 15.9% 13.8% 5.4% 1.7% 4.8% 2.2% 3.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 08/19/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 08/19/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 27 31 39 46 54 58 61 63 46 50 51 52 55 56 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 28 36 43 51 55 58 60 43 47 48 49 52 53 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 31 38 46 50 53 55 38 42 43 44 47 48 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT