* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 08/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 40 45 51 60 63 65 67 66 67 67 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 40 45 51 60 63 45 46 46 47 46 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 33 34 36 41 44 35 39 42 45 49 54 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 15 13 15 11 11 9 15 8 15 15 20 14 17 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 0 2 -1 -4 1 1 -1 4 5 6 8 2 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 285 272 274 286 288 266 273 263 252 278 288 309 335 315 313 319 305 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.9 29.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 160 159 159 157 156 157 167 168 153 155 153 156 150 155 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 10 8 9 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 62 61 68 67 70 69 69 70 69 73 74 74 73 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 15 15 14 15 16 18 20 22 26 850 MB ENV VOR 64 66 51 48 44 62 65 70 84 77 45 12 14 -8 -4 21 33 200 MB DIV 36 69 67 43 64 56 77 74 145 107 105 98 72 59 50 88 52 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 0 5 12 14 13 16 13 13 3 2 LAND (KM) 72 84 238 387 374 339 311 261 169 58 -33 110 258 368 413 406 566 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.3 16.2 17.5 19.4 20.9 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.5 62.0 63.4 64.8 66.0 68.2 70.0 71.2 71.9 72.0 71.8 70.9 69.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 5 6 8 10 8 9 8 8 6 10 HEAT CONTENT 59 36 37 43 56 64 112 111 74 63 60 58 66 63 51 40 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 13. 23. 31. 38. 44. 49. 52. 53. 51. 50. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 1. 2. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 20. 26. 35. 38. 40. 42. 41. 42. 42. 44. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 60.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 08/19/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.92 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 31.6% 16.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 11.5% 44.8% 34.1% 12.8% 4.6% 12.5% 10.0% 11.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 6.8% 3.7% 1.8% 0.6% 1.6% 2.7% 7.2% Consensus: 6.1% 27.7% 18.0% 7.6% 1.7% 4.7% 9.5% 6.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 08/19/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 08/19/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 36 40 45 51 60 63 45 46 46 47 46 49 50 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 36 41 47 56 59 41 42 42 43 42 45 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 30 35 41 50 53 35 36 36 37 36 39 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 32 41 44 26 27 27 28 27 30 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT