* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 08/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 39 37 34 29 24 24 24 27 26 30 29 29 32 39 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 39 37 34 29 24 24 24 27 26 30 29 29 32 39 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 39 37 32 27 24 22 21 21 21 23 24 23 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 23 32 32 33 35 38 34 18 12 4 8 15 17 21 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 6 2 -1 0 -4 1 3 1 0 1 3 4 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 220 222 225 242 254 262 285 278 293 257 188 226 233 242 277 307 346 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.0 24.7 19.2 19.0 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 127 128 132 134 134 141 148 147 143 127 106 80 81 75 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 46 45 46 46 48 53 58 60 62 65 59 52 50 49 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 18 16 14 12 11 12 11 11 8 11 10 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 84 98 87 66 56 33 16 2 -4 -28 -30 3 22 -26 -72 -98 -118 200 MB DIV 16 34 3 -16 4 10 5 16 39 -10 4 36 60 38 31 26 0 700-850 TADV 19 18 16 8 10 4 4 1 4 12 4 19 28 45 55 70 59 LAND (KM) 2197 2188 2189 2162 2116 2048 1944 1888 1883 1948 1757 1430 1071 752 639 932 1438 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.0 21.5 22.6 23.7 25.2 26.9 29.0 31.3 34.2 37.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.4 39.3 40.0 40.8 41.5 42.8 44.2 45.4 46.4 47.2 48.2 48.8 48.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 12 14 16 18 19 21 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 29 29 26 16 15 21 22 15 14 11 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 16. 14. 10. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -15. -20. -21. -21. -18. -15. -13. -10. -7. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -18. -19. -25. -21. -23. -25. -29. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -16. -16. -13. -14. -10. -11. -11. -8. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.4 38.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 08/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.43 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 6.4% 4.5% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.3% 1.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982023 INVEST 08/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 08/20/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 39 37 34 29 24 24 24 27 26 30 29 29 32 39 18HR AGO 40 39 40 38 36 33 28 23 23 23 26 25 29 28 28 31 38 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 32 29 24 19 19 19 22 21 25 24 24 27 34 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT