* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 28 27 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 28 27 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 34 33 37 44 39 48 23 18 11 16 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 -4 0 -3 5 -1 -7 -4 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 263 263 273 286 280 294 282 265 244 237 213 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.4 28.9 28.9 28.1 27.2 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 130 134 135 133 134 143 151 152 140 129 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 39 37 37 42 52 59 64 66 70 60 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 14 13 11 10 10 10 10 8 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 79 70 63 48 30 13 -7 -15 11 22 21 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -2 20 15 5 -5 18 31 -14 4 25 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 14 8 1 0 4 0 5 4 3 8 6 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2140 2079 1998 1918 1842 1690 1574 1597 1731 1727 1398 1080 775 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.8 24.2 26.2 28.6 31.3 34.3 37.3 40.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.6 41.6 42.5 43.6 44.6 46.5 48.3 49.3 49.7 49.9 49.9 49.5 48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 10 11 11 13 14 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 26 27 24 20 12 15 20 20 15 9 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 17. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -12. -20. -25. -27. -28. -26. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -15. -17. -22. -23. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -16. -21. -25. -25. -29. -27. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.5 40.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/21/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/21/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 29 28 27 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 31 30 29 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT