* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 48 54 63 71 75 78 79 77 82 86 94 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 48 54 63 71 75 78 79 77 82 86 94 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 35 42 51 62 70 74 74 73 74 76 82 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 10 9 5 6 11 14 13 14 13 15 18 16 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 -4 -1 3 5 2 -1 -7 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 75 69 73 62 52 63 319 270 275 254 259 233 249 254 279 285 297 SST (C) 28.1 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 144 148 147 141 136 139 137 133 131 134 130 132 134 132 135 139 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 76 75 72 69 68 67 64 70 65 63 56 50 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 12 14 15 18 22 24 24 25 23 25 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 33 25 21 20 15 16 23 21 25 14 11 14 8 7 -8 200 MB DIV 47 42 25 18 23 25 -14 -13 51 86 31 23 3 -3 2 12 -11 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -2 0 -1 4 0 4 1 9 9 13 9 2 0 3 -1 LAND (KM) 867 996 1114 1210 1318 1511 1716 1933 2103 2041 2025 2015 1941 1845 1718 1598 1508 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.2 19.3 20.5 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.6 26.8 27.9 28.8 29.8 31.6 33.5 35.5 37.4 39.2 40.8 42.1 43.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 22 27 23 16 14 23 22 28 26 32 26 22 15 11 15 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 402 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 22. 29. 36. 42. 45. 47. 47. 46. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 12. 12. 12. 8. 10. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 23. 29. 38. 46. 50. 53. 54. 52. 57. 61. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 25.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 18.6% 12.3% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 12.3% 5.5% 2.1% 1.1% 10.0% 11.1% 33.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 16.4% 3.9% 0.4% 0.2% 2.3% 0.7% 9.9% Consensus: 2.5% 15.8% 7.3% 3.5% 0.5% 4.1% 8.5% 14.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/21/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 40 48 54 63 71 75 78 79 77 82 86 94 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 37 45 51 60 68 72 75 76 74 79 83 91 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 32 40 46 55 63 67 70 71 69 74 78 86 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 31 37 46 54 58 61 62 60 65 69 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT