* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/21/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 56 61 59 58 59 55 57 56 58 62 66 68 67 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 56 61 45 47 48 44 45 44 47 51 55 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 47 48 50 39 44 47 51 54 56 58 62 68 76 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 17 13 9 12 14 19 17 25 28 30 24 19 4 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 1 4 0 0 -10 -3 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 275 261 275 286 271 261 271 288 302 286 277 276 245 262 140 267 181 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 150 151 155 157 152 155 159 159 164 164 163 161 157 137 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 7 5 700-500 MB RH 69 71 69 70 71 70 69 67 68 67 66 64 68 68 76 76 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 13 13 14 14 14 11 11 13 13 18 20 24 28 31 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 65 60 55 58 62 57 34 5 -3 -7 8 10 37 16 61 72 105 200 MB DIV 78 77 52 56 76 85 53 50 73 46 71 25 57 15 78 70 95 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 4 9 15 17 11 12 10 8 0 4 -6 0 13 7 LAND (KM) 234 241 237 293 246 85 -43 194 377 504 572 686 819 961 1119 1056 848 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.4 15.0 15.5 17.4 19.2 21.2 22.3 23.1 23.9 24.9 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.9 70.3 70.7 70.7 70.8 70.6 70.2 69.1 67.4 65.8 64.4 63.7 63.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 11 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 79 84 82 92 87 56 55 67 67 60 55 51 36 26 23 19 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 28. 25. 22. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -7. -9. -3. -1. 4. 8. 12. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 8. 4. -0. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 14. 13. 14. 10. 12. 11. 13. 17. 21. 23. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 69.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/21/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 84.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.52 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.59 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 43.3% 28.4% 19.8% 14.1% 21.9% 18.2% 19.7% Logistic: 19.6% 27.3% 16.9% 12.8% 6.8% 10.5% 12.9% 8.8% Bayesian: 2.5% 13.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 9.9% 27.9% 16.5% 11.8% 7.7% 11.1% 10.5% 9.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/21/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/21/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 53 56 61 45 47 48 44 45 44 47 51 55 57 56 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 53 58 42 44 45 41 42 41 44 48 52 54 53 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 52 36 38 39 35 36 35 38 42 46 48 47 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 43 27 29 30 26 27 26 29 33 37 39 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT