* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/22/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 30 32 33 32 33 34 34 36 41 43 51 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 30 32 33 32 33 34 34 36 41 43 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 18 20 23 21 24 19 18 13 18 12 14 13 19 19 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 0 0 -4 1 -2 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 241 258 281 294 300 295 301 304 273 275 298 315 322 326 340 344 11 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.7 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 131 128 132 133 133 136 133 134 134 137 146 151 148 146 145 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 64 64 66 66 69 68 67 66 67 67 65 64 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 5 4 6 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 5 4 5 5 -3 -11 -20 -31 -47 -69 -75 -74 -58 -45 -45 200 MB DIV 3 -15 -23 -41 -19 -9 10 4 13 21 17 -16 21 -15 2 8 -1 700-850 TADV 6 6 0 2 5 4 2 -1 -7 -13 -5 -6 2 1 2 3 2 LAND (KM) 1502 1622 1751 1882 2002 2137 2059 2000 1861 1724 1603 1554 1573 1627 1686 1723 1731 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.5 19.2 20.1 21.1 22.3 23.8 25.2 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.5 33.7 34.9 36.0 38.2 40.2 42.1 44.0 46.0 47.8 49.1 49.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 7 5 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 17 16 13 20 23 33 31 28 18 12 25 26 30 24 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 19. 25. 31. 35. 37. 38. 38. 37. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -4. -8. -12. -14. -13. -14. -13. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -10. -11. -15. -18. -18. -16. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 16. 18. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.9 31.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/22/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 13.1% 9.1% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 1.9% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.8% 3.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.4% 3.4% 2.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/22/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 29 30 32 33 32 33 34 34 36 41 43 51 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 28 29 31 32 31 32 33 33 35 40 42 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 26 28 29 28 29 30 30 32 37 39 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 19 21 22 21 22 23 23 25 30 32 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT