* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/23/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 19 20 22 25 27 28 28 29 31 35 38 41 44 50 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 19 20 22 25 27 28 28 29 31 35 38 41 44 50 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 18 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 17 18 20 21 23 25 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 20 20 19 21 17 14 15 13 9 10 7 14 11 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 255 279 294 301 295 289 292 293 260 284 316 351 2 330 344 360 23 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 131 136 137 134 134 137 133 137 139 144 152 151 149 149 150 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 64 64 61 65 65 64 63 62 62 62 61 59 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 5 6 13 7 3 -10 -25 -39 -47 -69 -73 -73 -56 -61 -62 200 MB DIV -10 -21 -35 -16 -8 5 18 8 0 0 3 0 9 -9 4 -18 -17 700-850 TADV 5 0 1 3 4 1 -1 -4 -8 -11 -4 -4 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1648 1787 1917 2037 2126 2021 1951 1841 1712 1559 1440 1399 1421 1435 1453 1433 1367 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.9 22.1 23.5 24.9 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.8 34.1 35.3 36.4 37.5 39.6 41.5 43.6 45.5 47.6 49.4 50.7 51.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 12 10 8 6 4 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 16 25 29 28 33 43 34 19 22 44 33 28 29 29 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 28. 34. 39. 41. 43. 43. 42. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 16. 18. 21. 24. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.8 32.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/23/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 1.1% 1.7% 8.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/23/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 18 19 20 22 25 27 28 28 29 31 35 38 41 44 50 18HR AGO 20 19 18 19 20 22 25 27 28 28 29 31 35 38 41 44 50 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 20 23 25 26 26 27 29 33 36 39 42 48 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT