* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 33 38 39 41 41 44 49 54 58 62 65 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 33 38 39 41 41 44 49 54 58 62 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 24 25 28 31 36 41 45 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 14 17 16 15 13 15 15 10 8 7 9 12 10 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 -1 -5 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 2 0 6 SHEAR DIR 300 308 305 303 300 306 297 273 298 305 334 344 350 27 22 40 42 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 144 148 147 141 141 138 138 139 141 144 145 146 148 150 151 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 62 60 62 65 67 67 66 65 66 62 62 57 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 2 2 5 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 25 20 14 6 -6 -23 -43 -56 -72 -77 -91 -88 -86 -69 -81 200 MB DIV -34 -30 -18 -12 5 42 7 14 -7 0 6 4 -7 2 -23 -30 -17 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 2 1 4 -1 -2 -1 -5 -4 0 -1 0 -3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1984 2008 1934 1872 1823 1777 1767 1677 1588 1490 1389 1344 1298 1271 1226 1166 1069 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.6 17.5 18.6 19.8 21.1 22.4 23.4 24.4 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.0 37.4 38.4 39.4 40.4 42.2 43.8 45.3 47.0 48.4 49.9 51.0 52.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 6 5 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 31 32 29 29 38 34 39 46 18 25 36 29 25 25 29 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 13. 21. 28. 35. 40. 42. 44. 44. 43. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -17. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 19. 21. 21. 24. 29. 34. 38. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.1 36.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.3% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 2.1% 3.0% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/23/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 28 33 38 39 41 41 44 49 54 58 62 65 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 27 32 37 38 40 40 43 48 53 57 61 64 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 23 28 33 34 36 36 39 44 49 53 57 60 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT