* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/24/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 52 55 59 61 67 71 73 76 76 77 79 72 67 63 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 52 55 59 61 67 71 73 76 76 77 79 72 67 63 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 45 47 49 50 53 57 64 70 72 73 75 72 66 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 17 15 20 25 19 16 13 13 18 13 8 7 10 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 3 4 4 1 -2 0 -6 -2 -7 0 -1 9 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 246 273 293 286 269 280 244 236 180 151 141 154 155 172 209 248 270 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.4 29.8 29.7 29.5 28.9 28.8 28.8 27.3 26.5 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 157 157 157 152 156 164 164 160 149 148 149 130 124 82 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -50.7 -50.2 -49.5 -49.9 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 3 0 700-500 MB RH 62 59 60 60 59 59 60 61 61 60 58 57 54 56 57 65 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 13 15 15 19 22 24 28 29 30 32 30 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -17 -4 22 23 17 36 54 44 45 49 49 31 25 -6 -13 -8 200 MB DIV 34 34 15 43 57 22 50 48 21 1 40 28 10 5 48 20 59 700-850 TADV 12 12 10 13 8 9 3 7 5 3 0 0 6 2 15 4 29 LAND (KM) 97 195 289 352 419 504 568 636 738 893 1056 908 890 886 731 502 285 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.3 23.7 24.4 25.3 27.0 29.3 31.1 32.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.5 69.9 69.3 68.7 68.1 66.8 65.8 65.4 65.6 66.4 67.3 67.6 66.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 6 4 4 7 11 10 8 8 10 17 25 29 HEAT CONTENT 63 79 85 78 72 80 64 57 46 38 38 25 20 17 9 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. 18. 14. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 9. 12. 15. 21. 21. 21. 23. 19. 17. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 7. 3. -0. -3. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 19. 21. 27. 31. 33. 36. 36. 37. 39. 32. 27. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.7 70.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/24/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.47 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.47 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.65 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.2% 12.3% 9.9% 7.9% 10.7% 11.4% 14.4% Logistic: 4.3% 15.7% 8.7% 7.7% 3.2% 6.9% 5.5% 7.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 11.5% 7.1% 5.9% 3.7% 5.9% 5.7% 7.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 19.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/24/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/24/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 52 55 59 61 67 71 73 76 76 77 79 72 67 63 18HR AGO 40 39 43 48 51 55 57 63 67 69 72 72 73 75 68 63 59 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 44 48 50 56 60 62 65 65 66 68 61 56 52 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 37 39 45 49 51 54 54 55 57 50 45 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT