* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 08/24/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 33 37 38 36 33 33 34 36 36 37 39 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 33 37 38 36 33 33 34 36 36 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 24 24 24 23 22 22 22 23 22 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 15 19 21 20 23 22 24 27 27 26 22 19 16 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -8 -7 -7 -4 -4 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 354 1 356 359 1 12 17 35 24 36 41 53 44 50 49 63 20 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.6 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 163 168 169 168 169 170 165 160 156 153 161 159 154 163 173 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 59 54 58 60 60 64 64 65 64 65 63 63 60 62 60 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -60 -46 -38 -35 -20 -26 -14 -49 -48 -89 -89 -104 -96 -117 -95 -78 200 MB DIV -4 36 33 8 -1 24 12 27 -15 -3 -18 8 -14 0 0 6 -14 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 1 3 3 2 0 0 -6 -9 -10 -9 -9 LAND (KM) 368 359 311 239 173 84 53 84 79 158 224 250 197 207 110 -13 41 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 16.6 15.9 15.4 15.0 14.8 15.1 16.2 17.5 19.0 19.9 20.5 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.2 58.1 58.3 58.8 59.3 60.1 60.6 60.9 61.0 61.2 61.7 62.6 64.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 5 3 4 6 8 6 5 5 8 10 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 61 61 63 65 64 60 58 65 77 61 57 59 65 64 66 59 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 12. 22. 30. 37. 43. 48. 52. 54. 53. 53. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -5. -11. -19. -26. -29. -31. -32. -31. -31. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 18. 16. 13. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.1 58.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 08/24/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 21.1% 13.4% 3.2% 1.3% 7.2% 11.4% 21.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.8% Consensus: 1.9% 7.9% 4.8% 1.1% 0.4% 2.6% 3.9% 7.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 08/24/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 08/24/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 28 33 37 38 36 33 33 34 36 36 33 34 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 27 32 36 37 35 32 32 33 35 35 32 33 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 23 28 32 33 31 28 28 29 31 31 28 29 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT