* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 08/24/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 33 36 38 42 45 45 44 43 41 42 44 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 33 36 38 42 45 45 44 43 41 42 44 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 28 27 25 24 23 23 23 25 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 23 25 24 17 17 17 17 11 17 17 12 4 5 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 6 5 SHEAR DIR 60 42 50 51 51 19 354 344 299 266 234 214 224 168 64 355 331 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.5 26.5 24.9 24.1 24.1 25.1 25.7 25.7 25.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 144 148 150 155 156 152 132 115 107 107 116 119 117 113 97 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 79 80 82 82 83 83 76 70 63 54 49 46 45 47 57 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 40 40 46 58 83 85 53 33 29 53 79 89 80 56 17 -2 200 MB DIV 67 99 99 111 112 117 119 47 39 27 28 -8 -32 -9 -12 32 9 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -5 -7 -7 -11 -21 -22 -13 -5 5 -2 -7 -1 0 6 2 LAND (KM) 1003 1031 1042 1039 1039 1049 1014 944 1006 1205 1550 1999 2088 1964 1937 1917 1857 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.1 13.2 14.7 16.9 18.9 20.2 20.2 19.0 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.0 109.8 110.4 111.1 112.4 114.2 116.4 119.5 123.5 127.8 132.1 135.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 14 17 19 20 21 20 15 7 4 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 13 16 19 43 25 29 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 18. 25. 31. 34. 36. 38. 39. 39. 38. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -14. -10. -8. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 17. 20. 20. 19. 18. 16. 17. 19. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 108.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 08/24/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 9.7% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 3.2% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 08/24/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##