* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 08/24/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 26 32 38 43 46 50 48 52 54 56 57 58 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 26 32 38 43 46 50 48 52 54 56 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 27 28 28 29 30 33 36 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 16 15 11 9 13 17 22 19 15 14 13 18 12 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 2 0 0 -2 -1 0 -4 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 34 40 36 29 48 76 93 98 104 90 95 63 51 46 37 18 32 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.2 30.7 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 158 158 160 158 158 158 159 160 162 165 170 170 167 166 165 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 6 6 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 67 67 68 68 71 73 75 77 75 72 69 69 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -20 -28 -27 -22 -10 -11 10 30 32 35 24 14 10 0 16 0 200 MB DIV 68 74 71 53 49 14 25 36 84 84 68 67 34 52 39 53 22 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 1 -2 -2 0 -2 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 627 611 569 534 490 401 342 317 293 277 222 156 91 45 0 20 15 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.3 13.1 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.8 15.7 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.5 99.9 100.1 100.2 100.3 100.1 99.9 99.8 99.7 99.9 100.3 100.9 101.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 2 5 6 7 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 30 33 33 28 28 29 30 30 32 33 35 35 35 34 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 37. 41. 45. 49. 50. 52. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -10. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 30. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 99.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 08/24/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 7.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 2.5% 0.8% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 1.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 08/24/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##