* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/25/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 31 34 38 43 49 53 54 54 51 47 47 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 31 34 38 43 49 53 54 54 51 47 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 28 28 29 31 34 38 42 45 46 45 43 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 14 9 13 13 9 10 6 6 2 9 15 34 32 32 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 -2 -7 -2 -1 -4 -1 -3 0 0 1 -4 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 290 297 291 263 238 286 273 337 311 332 327 14 41 77 81 87 77 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 143 141 138 138 138 142 144 147 145 144 142 140 138 140 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 57 60 60 63 64 69 71 71 72 70 69 65 60 55 52 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 7 8 8 8 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 4 -1 -16 -28 -47 -59 -62 -54 -59 -54 -61 -57 -64 -67 -64 -60 200 MB DIV 27 11 6 28 18 -1 9 14 24 -3 -17 -48 -70 -52 -45 -34 -34 700-850 TADV 5 3 0 0 0 -2 -10 -1 -2 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1886 1827 1766 1748 1721 1659 1642 1626 1652 1686 1746 1785 1840 1807 1822 1866 1791 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.7 20.5 21.4 22.2 23.8 25.2 26.4 27.4 28.2 28.9 29.5 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.6 43.7 44.7 45.4 46.0 47.2 48.1 49.1 49.6 49.9 49.8 49.9 49.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 10 9 10 8 7 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 44 39 32 23 15 17 21 27 24 19 18 17 16 14 14 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 26. 27. 26. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 2. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -8. -6. -6. -7. -9. -12. -16. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 13. 18. 24. 28. 29. 29. 26. 22. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.1 42.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/25/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 12.9% 8.8% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 10.0% 5.9% 2.6% 0.8% 6.3% 8.5% 18.5% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% Consensus: 2.2% 8.2% 5.2% 2.7% 0.3% 2.3% 6.6% 6.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/25/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/25/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 30 31 34 38 43 49 53 54 54 51 47 47 47 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 46 50 51 51 48 44 44 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 27 31 36 42 46 47 47 44 40 40 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 20 24 29 35 39 40 40 37 33 33 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT