* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 08/25/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 43 52 60 62 64 67 71 73 74 75 77 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 43 52 60 62 45 33 29 27 31 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 27 32 36 40 33 29 27 27 32 36 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 17 11 9 7 6 10 7 11 6 5 10 9 9 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 2 1 -2 -2 -5 -3 -2 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 33 21 28 18 12 72 97 111 112 120 127 324 334 354 16 13 46 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.2 30.6 30.5 29.5 29.1 29.2 30.1 30.7 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 162 162 160 160 164 169 168 158 154 155 165 169 161 159 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 9 7 10 8 11 8 12 8 11 8 11 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 66 67 68 69 72 73 73 71 69 63 64 62 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 6 8 9 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -23 -25 -17 -14 -20 -4 7 35 52 55 32 18 17 8 -4 -13 200 MB DIV 41 41 49 51 38 -1 31 45 81 50 29 29 15 20 -1 0 12 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 -3 -3 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 584 556 520 481 432 351 266 190 114 31 -56 -153 -162 -71 61 155 216 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.3 18.5 19.6 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.2 100.7 101.0 101.1 101.2 101.2 101.1 101.2 101.3 101.5 102.0 102.7 103.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 6 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 36 37 38 41 41 36 34 34 32 22 19 19 28 34 28 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 42. 46. 49. 51. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 23. 32. 40. 42. 44. 47. 51. 53. 54. 55. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 100.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 08/25/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 7.7% 2.6% 1.3% 0.6% 3.0% 6.5% 21.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.4% Consensus: 0.2% 3.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 2.3% 7.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 08/25/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##