* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/25/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 37 37 37 36 34 33 30 27 26 28 32 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 37 37 37 36 34 33 30 27 26 28 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 34 34 34 34 33 31 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 16 14 12 16 13 17 19 23 27 27 44 45 41 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 0 -3 2 -6 0 -5 2 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 172 184 209 220 226 277 306 318 325 327 341 350 348 343 343 3 17 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.9 26.4 25.3 25.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 126 120 118 114 111 111 111 112 115 118 120 117 109 108 96 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 61 57 53 51 48 46 50 52 55 52 52 47 47 46 48 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -5 -4 -9 -12 -51 -67 -74 -73 -70 -60 -81 -108 -71 -125 -141 -94 200 MB DIV 37 28 18 14 18 -18 10 -13 -16 -24 -20 -56 -7 7 8 -20 -33 700-850 TADV 6 5 12 15 6 6 1 -3 -6 -4 -11 -4 -10 18 23 33 29 LAND (KM) 1553 1458 1360 1292 1225 1167 1136 1117 1104 1121 1171 1186 1116 1000 976 1077 1278 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.0 35.0 35.8 36.6 37.6 38.1 38.2 38.2 37.9 37.2 36.7 37.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.6 48.5 48.1 47.5 47.0 45.9 45.5 45.7 46.0 46.3 46.8 47.9 48.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 5 2 2 1 3 5 5 4 9 13 16 23 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 4 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 3 6 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -11. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. -0. -3. -4. -2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.1 48.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/25/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.1% 7.6% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.4% 3.0% 1.6% 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/25/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/25/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 33 35 37 37 37 36 34 33 30 27 26 28 32 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 33 35 35 35 34 32 31 28 25 24 26 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 32 32 32 31 29 28 25 22 21 23 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 25 25 25 24 22 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT