* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 08/25/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 45 54 63 69 73 68 67 65 62 60 56 54 52 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 45 54 63 69 73 68 67 65 62 60 56 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 44 47 47 48 50 51 50 46 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 16 10 9 4 5 1 6 8 2 6 6 14 14 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 0 1 0 -3 0 -3 0 1 0 -1 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 41 50 57 46 24 36 337 273 237 262 259 256 264 235 243 225 236 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.0 26.4 25.8 25.2 25.1 25.7 25.7 24.5 23.6 23.5 23.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 153 152 144 128 122 116 115 120 119 107 98 96 98 101 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 83 84 81 78 72 67 64 59 54 50 48 49 51 50 45 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 16 17 19 21 23 25 26 27 25 24 23 22 21 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 82 91 99 94 79 56 46 50 46 69 71 70 58 59 43 33 21 200 MB DIV 110 127 140 124 106 54 34 32 9 -11 0 -2 -5 0 8 -16 6 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 1 3 0 -3 0 1 4 -1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1369 1357 1338 1306 1271 1234 1251 1380 1573 1791 2015 2168 2173 2015 1861 1726 1596 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.7 14.5 16.0 17.3 18.0 18.1 17.8 17.3 17.3 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.7 117.2 117.7 118.2 119.3 121.1 123.5 126.2 128.7 131.0 132.8 134.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 9 10 11 13 13 12 10 7 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 16 19 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. 30. 28. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 17. 20. 17. 16. 13. 10. 8. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 29. 38. 44. 48. 43. 42. 40. 37. 35. 31. 29. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 116.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 08/25/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.80 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.7% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 8.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 2.4% 4.9% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 9.6% 6.0% 0.3% 0.1% 7.1% 6.9% 1.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 19.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 10.0% 8.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 08/25/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##