* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/26/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 60 64 71 76 80 81 80 79 74 70 73 62 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 60 64 71 76 80 81 80 79 74 70 73 62 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 55 57 59 64 69 74 79 79 79 75 72 59 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 24 16 13 17 6 13 8 8 7 14 20 37 47 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 7 -1 9 12 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 269 252 209 202 160 154 126 171 185 233 236 249 246 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.3 29.2 28.6 28.1 27.3 27.8 21.6 13.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 161 161 164 169 171 171 155 146 139 131 139 92 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -50.4 -50.5 -49.1 -48.7 -47.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.3 2.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 62 63 63 64 58 61 59 64 60 64 58 48 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 19 19 21 22 23 24 25 27 27 29 33 25 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 6 25 33 31 26 23 27 24 34 -9 7 63 233 272 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 12 27 51 33 19 5 9 20 26 16 63 59 142 103 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 8 10 7 2 8 1 -2 6 -2 19 9 36 86 -98 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 424 457 490 525 563 663 795 942 846 771 822 727 566 340 478 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.4 23.8 25.0 26.9 28.8 30.7 32.6 34.5 36.9 39.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.6 66.5 66.4 66.5 66.6 67.1 68.1 68.6 68.8 68.2 66.8 64.2 60.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 5 5 9 10 10 10 10 13 19 25 32 35 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 69 73 81 83 55 47 49 29 18 14 22 35 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 13. 12. 13. 18. 6. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. -0. -3. -6. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 26. 30. 31. 30. 29. 24. 20. 23. 12. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.3 66.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/26/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.46 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 17.0% 11.5% 9.1% 6.7% 11.5% 15.5% 26.0% Logistic: 6.7% 12.7% 6.8% 4.0% 1.6% 8.2% 10.7% 8.7% Bayesian: 2.2% 3.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 4.4% 0.7% Consensus: 4.5% 11.1% 6.7% 4.5% 2.8% 6.9% 10.2% 11.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/26/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/26/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 60 64 71 76 80 81 80 79 74 70 73 62 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 52 56 60 67 72 76 77 76 75 70 66 69 58 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 61 66 70 71 70 69 64 60 63 52 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 51 56 60 61 60 59 54 50 53 42 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT