* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 08/26/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 22 26 33 39 45 50 54 56 60 62 64 65 68 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 22 26 33 39 45 50 54 56 60 46 36 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 31 35 40 35 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 16 16 15 10 13 12 7 5 4 9 10 8 6 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -4 0 7 -1 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 -5 -5 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 26 10 355 360 12 57 94 104 98 70 351 343 356 10 8 29 79 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.3 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 157 158 160 160 162 166 169 168 165 162 159 158 159 161 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 7 10 7 10 7 11 7 11 8 11 8 12 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 65 65 70 68 75 72 71 65 67 68 72 70 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -62 -70 -66 -60 -51 -19 13 29 33 18 13 1 7 2 -8 -14 200 MB DIV 49 41 23 44 47 51 55 44 30 26 5 -5 19 10 0 1 20 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 533 521 503 475 455 391 342 280 191 118 57 21 8 -15 -64 -99 -43 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.7 103.9 104.0 104.0 103.7 103.2 102.9 102.8 102.8 103.1 103.5 103.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 3 3 3 2 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 43 43 43 47 48 43 39 37 36 36 32 27 23 25 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 3. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 36. 40. 44. 47. 49. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 19. 26. 30. 34. 36. 40. 42. 44. 45. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 103.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 08/26/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 1.7% 5.1% 17.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% Consensus: 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 1.7% 7.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 08/26/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##