* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 08/26/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 34 39 45 55 62 63 62 60 57 55 51 50 47 46 41 V (KT) LAND 25 30 34 39 45 55 62 63 62 60 57 55 51 50 47 46 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 40 42 43 43 44 44 44 44 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 9 9 8 6 7 3 6 10 7 11 9 18 25 35 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 3 3 2 -1 0 2 -2 1 -2 -1 -4 -1 -4 -11 SHEAR DIR 39 49 46 12 12 354 1 305 271 285 274 291 279 281 278 278 269 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.1 27.8 26.2 25.1 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.2 24.9 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 148 146 143 126 115 114 111 108 105 112 111 115 117 114 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 83 80 77 72 70 68 59 52 45 42 40 38 36 36 36 35 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 16 17 19 23 23 23 22 23 22 21 19 18 15 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 103 113 104 92 86 86 79 61 66 78 83 94 97 99 89 79 63 200 MB DIV 115 127 129 114 94 34 23 -8 -19 -18 1 -14 -13 6 43 20 14 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -1 0 0 0 -2 -4 1 -6 0 3 9 5 5 1 8 LAND (KM) 1424 1407 1400 1433 1456 1544 1644 1750 1942 2167 2052 1842 1625 1365 1094 873 726 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 11 12 11 12 13 11 10 10 11 12 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 15 12 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. 30. 30. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 4. 2. -0. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 20. 30. 37. 38. 37. 35. 32. 30. 26. 25. 22. 21. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 117.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 08/26/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.35 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.8% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 30.5% 14.1% 6.4% 1.7% 4.3% 0.5% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 18.6% 10.8% 2.2% 0.6% 8.1% 5.5% 0.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 11.0% 6.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 08/26/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##