* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/27/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 33 35 36 35 33 30 34 40 49 56 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 33 35 36 35 33 30 34 40 49 56 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 29 29 28 27 25 24 25 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 20 13 10 18 14 17 20 22 32 31 32 34 26 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -3 3 4 0 1 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 301 314 298 299 332 321 359 3 346 333 291 297 308 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.8 26.9 15.1 14.1 12.5 12.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 149 152 153 147 144 138 137 129 77 76 75 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 8 7 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 69 72 74 74 75 72 68 65 64 69 68 73 75 72 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -67 -64 -62 -69 -64 -59 -85 -98 -70 -22 0 48 121 90 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 1 18 53 30 -5 0 -16 -9 20 106 106 57 12 -50 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -4 -6 -9 0 -7 6 -6 23 25 76 110 137 76 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1479 1472 1480 1502 1521 1588 1647 1575 1385 1115 701 439 1091 679 172 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.6 27.3 28.0 28.6 29.8 30.8 31.9 33.5 36.1 40.3 45.8 52.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.5 51.2 51.8 52.3 52.8 53.5 54.2 55.0 55.7 55.7 53.5 47.4 38.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 10 17 29 40 43 40 40 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 29 26 26 25 21 17 16 14 12 5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 14. 14. 16. 18. 21. 22. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 9. 15. 24. 31. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.9 50.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/27/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 16.5% 11.3% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 23.8% 14.4% 7.8% 3.7% 14.3% 14.5% 19.4% Bayesian: 1.1% 4.2% 1.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 14.8% 9.0% 5.6% 1.3% 4.9% 8.4% 6.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/27/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/27/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 31 33 35 36 35 33 30 34 40 49 56 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 30 32 33 32 30 27 31 37 46 53 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 27 28 27 25 22 26 32 41 48 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 20 21 20 18 15 19 25 34 41 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT