* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102023 08/27/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 37 37 36 36 33 31 28 25 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 37 37 36 36 33 31 28 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 27 26 26 26 25 24 22 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 2 1 5 7 8 4 4 7 7 13 24 34 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 0 0 1 -1 0 2 4 1 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 28 23 16 344 159 208 222 232 219 246 290 275 274 297 272 281 277 SST (C) 28.1 27.2 26.5 25.8 25.5 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.8 24.3 24.0 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.6 24.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 136 129 122 119 114 114 114 112 106 102 104 105 108 108 109 110 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 65 67 64 62 58 51 45 40 40 41 40 38 41 42 41 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 20 20 20 20 18 18 16 16 14 13 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 53 46 45 47 49 40 70 73 82 87 94 86 71 45 36 25 16 200 MB DIV 56 55 57 67 31 -7 -8 -12 -26 2 2 12 0 -5 -14 -11 -31 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 0 -1 2 0 -4 0 2 4 5 2 4 4 4 3 LAND (KM) 1192 1226 1267 1318 1368 1503 1739 1973 2218 1975 1737 1546 1424 1268 1085 950 871 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.3 18.3 17.8 17.9 18.4 18.6 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.1 121.0 122.1 123.2 125.5 128.5 131.3 133.8 136.1 138.3 140.1 141.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 12 14 13 11 11 10 7 7 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 17. 16. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 9. 6. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 3. 1. -2. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 119.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102023 TEN 08/27/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.57 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.97 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 17.2% 14.4% 11.5% 0.0% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.9% 5.5% 4.0% 0.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102023 TEN 08/27/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##