* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/27/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 95 102 106 111 114 112 108 101 99 94 97 62 48 32 30 V (KT) LAND 85 91 95 102 106 111 114 112 108 101 99 94 97 62 48 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 85 90 96 101 107 116 120 117 105 100 98 93 71 41 26 19 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 6 8 5 7 12 3 8 8 29 56 66 55 53 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -5 -5 0 7 22 11 8 -10 -6 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 84 132 164 337 25 309 275 267 261 297 268 252 241 255 265 285 282 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.4 28.7 27.7 27.2 27.0 27.3 24.7 23.9 24.3 22.8 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 167 170 170 167 158 147 134 130 128 131 105 98 101 93 85 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -50.5 -50.3 -49.9 -49.6 -49.3 -49.9 -50.5 -50.0 -51.4 -54.2 -55.5 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 59 56 55 58 58 60 61 65 66 46 33 33 29 36 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 23 25 26 28 31 32 32 33 38 39 47 27 18 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 35 42 37 23 20 28 20 30 60 72 85 -18 -39 -66 -84 -62 -83 200 MB DIV 2 21 4 10 15 26 19 25 -14 1 0 -31 6 -21 -7 -2 -11 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 0 -5 8 5 8 -4 31 2 -43 -87 -71 -38 14 31 LAND (KM) 563 579 608 659 715 839 763 756 823 887 904 859 697 716 826 1032 1316 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.5 26.1 26.8 27.4 29.0 30.4 31.9 33.8 35.5 37.2 38.9 40.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.0 69.6 70.1 70.4 70.7 70.7 70.2 68.9 67.0 63.5 58.7 54.2 50.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 11 14 19 21 18 16 12 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 52 56 47 53 30 21 14 12 8 12 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -12. -18. -24. -29. -35. -41. -47. -52. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 21. 22. 27. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 16. 17. 27. -4. -16. -33. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 7. 3. -0. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 17. 21. 26. 29. 27. 23. 16. 14. 9. 12. -23. -37. -53. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 24.8 69.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/27/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.62 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.29 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.2% 37.7% 27.2% 21.6% 15.8% 24.0% 21.4% 0.0% Logistic: 12.2% 34.4% 27.7% 14.5% 8.5% 21.1% 9.8% 5.5% Bayesian: 5.2% 27.2% 11.9% 5.6% 0.9% 4.3% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 12.5% 33.1% 22.3% 13.9% 8.4% 16.5% 10.6% 1.9% DTOPS: 21.0% 74.0% 51.0% 37.0% 17.0% 74.0% 35.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/27/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/27/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 17( 25) 27( 45) 29( 61) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 26 25( 45) 20( 56) 24( 66) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 91 95 102 106 111 114 112 108 101 99 94 97 62 48 32 30 18HR AGO 85 84 88 95 99 104 107 105 101 94 92 87 90 55 41 25 23 12HR AGO 85 82 81 88 92 97 100 98 94 87 85 80 83 48 34 18 16 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 79 84 87 85 81 74 72 67 70 35 21 DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 71 74 72 68 61 59 54 57 22 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 91 82 76 73 73 76 74 70 63 61 56 59 24 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 91 95 86 80 76 79 77 73 66 64 59 62 27 DIS DIS DIS