* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/29/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 131 132 131 126 118 110 95 87 80 73 55 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 131 132 131 126 118 110 95 87 80 73 55 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 130 128 124 120 108 99 90 85 68 47 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 9 9 12 3 13 12 31 72 76 56 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -4 -5 0 -1 11 19 9 2 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 294 266 251 266 289 333 360 247 234 225 224 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.7 27.8 26.8 26.2 25.3 17.4 14.9 17.4 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 157 155 153 147 136 125 120 111 77 73 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -49.1 -48.9 -48.3 -45.9 -44.3 -44.6 -45.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 61 61 65 67 54 40 31 29 33 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 31 31 30 31 32 31 35 40 38 26 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -3 0 7 0 17 19 56 126 83 -11 -38 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 46 36 40 22 -8 -18 -2 43 -24 -13 -12 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 6 6 4 24 8 10 -84 -97 2 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 805 763 713 700 690 758 791 753 647 362 517 922 1340 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.8 30.5 31.4 32.2 33.9 36.1 38.4 40.9 43.9 47.2 49.7 51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.1 71.0 70.8 70.1 69.5 67.7 64.3 59.5 55.1 50.6 45.8 40.4 34.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 14 20 22 21 23 23 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 36 27 24 20 17 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -3. -12. -26. -43. -61. -80. -93. -101. -107. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -6. -4. -1. 3. 7. 12. 22. 30. 41. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 7. 14. 10. -8. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -4. -12. -20. -35. -43. -50. -57. -75. -65. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 29.0 71.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/29/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 799.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 2.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/29/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/29/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 45( 69) 40( 81) 32( 87) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 58 26( 69) 0( 69) 0( 69) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 131 132 131 126 118 110 95 87 80 73 55 65 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 130 129 130 129 124 116 108 93 85 78 71 53 63 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 130 127 126 125 120 112 104 89 81 74 67 49 59 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 115 107 99 84 76 69 62 44 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 130 121 115 112 111 103 95 80 72 65 58 40 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 130 131 122 116 113 109 101 86 78 71 64 46 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 130 131 132 123 117 113 105 90 82 75 68 50 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS