* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902023 08/29/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 56 68 76 82 86 87 91 90 86 83 78 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 56 68 76 82 86 87 91 90 86 83 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 34 41 49 59 70 75 76 78 83 89 92 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 14 15 13 8 6 10 8 7 6 5 3 8 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 -1 0 0 2 -1 2 3 1 1 0 0 2 11 10 11 SHEAR DIR 75 89 87 82 83 97 90 75 49 30 4 41 65 134 198 240 217 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 155 159 161 161 159 160 159 158 156 152 151 154 162 163 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 57 57 55 52 52 52 54 58 59 57 56 56 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 8 8 8 7 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 10 15 19 28 40 39 39 24 7 -1 -13 -7 -13 -12 -17 -9 200 MB DIV 75 72 40 33 20 10 38 57 41 33 30 14 20 -9 -13 -17 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 2 2 1 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1318 1301 1298 1306 1336 1419 1534 1665 1799 1870 1919 1997 2095 2281 2530 2563 2523 LAT (DEG N) 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.2 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.2 8.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 151.7 152.6 153.7 154.8 156.0 158.7 161.4 164.0 166.4 168.5 170.4 172.4 174.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 13 13 14 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 14 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 16 29 62 70 60 54 73 84 86 71 40 32 38 63 87 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 5. 14. 27. 39. 49. 55. 61. 65. 67. 68. 67. 67. 67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -3. 1. 3. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -4. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 31. 43. 51. 57. 61. 62. 66. 65. 61. 58. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.7 151.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP902023 INVEST 08/29/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.32 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.0% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 16.1% 4.6% 2.4% 0.9% 1.5% 2.6% 50.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.6% 11.8% 6.6% 0.8% 0.3% 6.5% 6.3% 16.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902023 INVEST 08/29/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##