* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 08/30/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 42 49 53 56 55 51 48 45 45 46 53 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 42 49 53 56 55 51 48 45 45 46 53 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 47 48 46 42 39 37 35 36 39 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 7 6 4 6 9 19 23 20 22 28 22 10 11 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 -1 -1 8 -2 0 -1 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 86 81 84 101 152 177 179 176 196 212 205 216 263 322 355 54 208 SST (C) 28.2 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 130 126 127 129 130 131 124 121 122 117 118 118 117 113 111 109 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 63 64 65 69 70 75 72 68 60 53 48 45 43 44 40 42 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 12 14 14 13 11 8 6 5 4 3 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 125 112 110 110 102 95 85 61 35 -12 -68 -75 -86 -59 -57 -8 9 200 MB DIV 37 25 61 78 81 86 79 18 40 12 -23 -9 -17 0 -39 -17 -20 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 2 5 16 12 10 0 -1 -6 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 444 553 654 737 820 995 1109 1161 1260 1430 1548 1637 1628 1540 1410 1269 1170 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.8 19.2 20.8 22.5 24.7 27.1 28.9 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.6 22.6 23.5 24.2 24.9 26.3 27.5 28.2 29.1 30.5 31.1 31.3 30.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 9 8 10 11 13 11 8 4 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 7 4 4 5 7 25 12 8 3 0 1 5 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 31. 34. 35. 35. 33. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -19. -20. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 24. 28. 31. 30. 26. 23. 20. 20. 21. 28. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 21.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 08/30/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 14.7% 9.9% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.9% 4.0% 1.2% 0.4% 3.1% 6.1% 3.2% Bayesian: 2.1% 6.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.2% 1.9% 4.8% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 10.4% 5.1% 2.4% 0.2% 1.7% 8.0% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 08/30/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 36 42 49 53 56 55 51 48 45 45 46 53 59 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 38 45 49 52 51 47 44 41 41 42 49 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 32 39 43 46 45 41 38 35 35 36 43 49 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 30 34 37 36 32 29 26 26 27 34 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT