* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 08/31/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 44 47 51 50 49 48 47 46 47 49 55 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 44 47 51 50 49 48 47 46 47 49 55 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 36 39 38 37 36 36 36 36 37 39 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 12 15 10 8 10 14 11 9 6 6 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 0 1 1 1 0 4 1 0 2 0 0 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 99 94 82 110 135 144 189 202 198 225 269 304 320 56 142 135 155 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.0 25.5 25.5 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 130 134 137 134 130 126 122 114 113 112 110 108 108 111 114 116 121 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 73 76 78 78 73 63 57 51 50 48 43 35 34 34 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 14 14 15 17 16 15 12 9 8 6 5 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 111 100 97 94 85 71 42 13 -43 -44 -57 -57 -68 -69 -52 -50 -63 200 MB DIV 78 84 93 112 91 56 23 -33 -6 -13 -11 -24 -43 -23 -39 -23 -28 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -1 0 4 5 14 7 4 -1 -7 -13 -12 -2 1 3 LAND (KM) 765 823 875 924 972 970 1018 1148 1262 1329 1309 1205 1042 922 946 1104 1340 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.2 18.0 20.0 21.9 24.0 25.9 27.0 27.4 27.3 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.6 25.1 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.8 27.8 28.5 28.8 28.4 27.3 25.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 11 10 12 7 4 3 6 8 7 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 11 10 8 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 30. 31. 31. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. -0. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -26. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 19. 22. 26. 25. 24. 23. 22. 21. 22. 24. 30. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 24.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 08/31/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 17.1% 11.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 23.0% 8.5% 2.8% 1.6% 9.2% 9.2% 8.8% Bayesian: 1.4% 6.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.3% Consensus: 2.8% 15.6% 7.1% 3.2% 0.6% 3.8% 7.3% 3.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 08/31/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 34 37 44 47 51 50 49 48 47 46 47 49 55 60 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 34 41 44 48 47 46 45 44 43 44 46 52 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 37 41 40 39 38 37 36 37 39 45 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 28 32 31 30 29 28 27 28 30 36 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT