* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 08/31/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 29 28 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 29 28 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 26 30 30 37 40 34 35 34 27 28 34 43 53 63 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 9 6 1 2 -1 5 0 0 -1 3 1 0 1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 49 54 55 45 36 25 15 358 355 347 335 307 290 277 269 261 255 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.0 24.0 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 155 152 147 140 137 132 131 132 127 123 121 116 102 95 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -51.2 -51.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 56 58 61 65 66 64 59 60 54 51 54 57 57 54 56 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -3 -3 0 20 52 28 43 28 12 18 17 11 2 -4 -3 46 200 MB DIV 5 7 10 -6 4 56 25 44 -40 -23 -13 1 -8 6 32 60 63 700-850 TADV 1 4 1 3 2 -12 -3 0 9 5 7 12 16 10 17 30 44 LAND (KM) 1251 1293 1371 1455 1546 1719 1756 1740 1691 1642 1577 1497 1493 1597 1762 1840 1299 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.8 30.5 31.0 31.4 32.2 33.0 33.9 35.1 36.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.6 57.1 56.3 55.4 54.3 52.3 50.2 48.5 46.9 45.7 44.9 43.9 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 10 10 10 8 7 7 6 6 8 10 13 18 23 26 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 31 28 21 16 14 12 9 11 8 6 6 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -8. -12. -14. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -16. -17. -18. -17. -15. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.4 57.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 08/31/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.65 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 8.1% 5.4% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.3% 2.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 08/31/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 08/31/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 30 29 28 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 26 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT