* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 09/01/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 67 65 63 55 49 41 34 29 30 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 70 67 65 63 55 49 41 34 29 30 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 69 67 66 58 47 37 30 27 26 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 17 24 30 28 33 23 20 19 21 18 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 3 6 13 17 13 10 2 5 0 -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 357 333 274 254 235 208 191 195 217 193 185 172 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.0 23.9 22.8 20.7 19.3 17.8 16.2 15.3 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 129 131 127 100 93 83 78 74 70 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.9 -49.2 -48.7 -48.4 -48.2 -49.0 -48.7 -48.7 -48.3 -49.5 -52.0 -52.3 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.8 1.6 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.5 0.9 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 52 47 42 45 49 54 52 53 58 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 32 34 35 35 31 28 23 23 21 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 80 80 64 63 57 8 9 -10 -15 8 34 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 26 34 69 86 99 123 97 59 46 49 37 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 -3 -14 -43 -40 -58 -41 -25 -16 -14 -2 -1 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 943 933 911 841 746 664 802 1014 1273 1505 1365 1192 1075 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.3 38.1 39.1 40.0 42.2 44.4 46.0 47.5 48.9 50.3 51.8 53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.5 57.6 55.8 53.8 51.8 47.5 43.2 39.5 35.7 32.4 29.7 27.7 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 17 18 19 19 17 15 14 12 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 10 9 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -15. -25. -34. -43. -49. -54. -56. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -3. 2. 7. 15. 21. 26. 30. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 3. 4. 5. 7. 2. -4. -11. -13. -17. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -12. -20. -26. -34. -41. -46. -45. -46. -52. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 36.4 59.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 09/01/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.12 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.09 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 09/01/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 09/01/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 70 67 65 63 55 49 41 34 29 30 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 71 69 67 59 53 45 38 33 34 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 67 59 53 45 38 33 34 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 55 49 41 34 29 30 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT