* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 09/02/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 47 46 43 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 47 46 43 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 48 48 46 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 31 29 27 25 23 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 41 40 43 37 41 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 150 148 147 145 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 61 62 64 64 65 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 7 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 19 43 60 84 115 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 10 -9 19 22 53 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1349 1407 1464 1550 1636 1640 1311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.1 28.5 29.2 29.9 31.9 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.2 53.9 53.6 53.2 52.8 52.1 51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 8 9 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 38 31 22 18 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.6 54.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 09/02/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 10.8% 7.5% 5.5% 0.0% 7.9% 9.7% 11.8% Logistic: 1.1% 2.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 1.6% 2.9% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.4% 2.8% 2.1% 0.2% 3.2% 4.2% 5.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 09/02/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 09/02/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 47 47 46 43 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 43 40 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 37 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 31 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT