* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 09/04/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 50 51 51 53 56 57 57 58 58 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 50 51 51 53 56 57 57 58 58 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 43 46 49 51 53 55 56 57 59 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 14 11 16 16 19 18 19 16 26 24 24 19 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 2 3 0 3 0 -1 0 0 3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 80 72 66 63 49 35 29 16 8 322 295 281 278 278 275 258 232 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.4 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.7 30.0 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 157 156 158 163 160 151 153 157 162 161 166 166 171 167 164 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 66 67 68 66 65 61 60 61 60 64 63 67 67 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 27 26 24 28 27 24 29 16 12 19 9 6 -7 -18 -27 -16 200 MB DIV 14 2 -30 -46 -39 11 40 40 34 7 19 -6 19 12 41 20 70 700-850 TADV 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 -9 -11 -10 -14 -13 -9 LAND (KM) 1414 1541 1674 1714 1681 1673 1580 1458 1407 1288 1041 791 511 375 362 451 452 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.4 12.0 13.0 14.1 15.5 16.7 18.0 19.1 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.9 31.2 32.5 33.6 34.9 37.5 40.0 42.6 45.1 48.0 51.1 54.4 57.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 13 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 16 16 14 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 25 28 37 29 33 35 58 45 50 65 48 91 73 75 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 24. 33. 40. 46. 51. 54. 56. 54. 53. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -25. -26. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 21. 21. 23. 26. 27. 27. 28. 28. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 29.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 09/04/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 16.3% 10.9% 9.1% 6.9% 10.8% 11.3% 14.9% Logistic: 2.5% 9.8% 5.9% 2.9% 2.0% 6.1% 9.8% 12.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 8.9% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 5.0% Consensus: 2.1% 11.6% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.8% 7.2% 10.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 09/04/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 50 51 51 53 56 57 57 58 58 61 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 39 44 48 49 49 51 54 55 55 56 56 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 40 44 45 45 47 50 51 51 52 52 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 32 36 37 37 39 42 43 43 44 44 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT