* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112023 09/04/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 50 62 77 87 100 105 110 108 100 93 85 80 75 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 50 62 77 87 100 105 110 108 100 93 85 80 75 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 44 55 71 88 104 113 107 93 78 67 57 50 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 6 5 3 6 7 3 3 0 6 13 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 0 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 4 -2 6 2 SHEAR DIR 46 65 75 47 47 33 42 341 1 16 6 70 70 194 246 247 233 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.6 28.8 28.7 27.8 25.8 24.9 24.0 23.7 22.8 22.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 162 160 160 163 162 154 153 144 123 113 103 100 90 88 90 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 -50.4 -50.1 -50.3 -49.7 -50.3 -50.6 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 83 83 86 86 85 82 74 65 61 64 63 59 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 15 17 21 23 29 33 38 39 36 33 30 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 41 41 35 42 47 45 72 89 114 113 121 132 124 116 95 101 73 200 MB DIV 70 103 104 103 114 135 139 127 126 71 47 28 43 12 -13 2 2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -6 -10 -12 -12 -9 -4 -10 -4 0 0 2 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 622 645 656 666 681 714 761 837 808 882 986 1077 1193 1352 1528 1603 1685 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 10 12 13 13 15 14 12 11 11 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 27 24 23 22 23 25 16 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. 35. 33. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 10. 16. 25. 31. 37. 36. 29. 23. 18. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 20. 32. 47. 57. 70. 75. 80. 78. 70. 63. 55. 50. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 103.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 ELEVEN 09/04/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.57 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 26.7% 19.9% 16.9% 0.0% 25.7% 48.5% 60.6% Logistic: 2.4% 20.0% 8.1% 4.1% 2.2% 16.3% 44.6% 23.8% Bayesian: 2.3% 24.6% 20.0% 7.4% 0.9% 9.0% 10.8% 12.3% Consensus: 5.5% 23.8% 16.0% 9.5% 1.0% 17.0% 34.6% 32.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 23.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 21.0% 37.0% 69.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 ELEVEN 09/04/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##