* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 09/05/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 44 52 64 73 77 84 86 93 100 105 105 111 114 112 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 44 52 64 73 77 84 86 93 100 105 105 111 114 112 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 44 53 61 68 78 91 103 111 114 117 120 119 116 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 16 8 7 12 11 12 10 10 12 9 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -6 -4 -4 4 1 SHEAR DIR 37 46 39 40 37 35 18 359 286 316 270 310 285 315 301 321 294 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.2 28.9 29.3 29.1 29.6 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 173 171 169 164 156 151 158 154 163 158 160 161 164 168 167 164 159 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.3 -50.4 -49.7 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 64 67 67 65 65 67 68 67 67 66 63 60 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 16 20 23 24 25 27 29 35 38 41 41 45 48 49 850 MB ENV VOR 43 41 35 38 38 39 35 42 28 24 29 29 35 43 58 64 74 200 MB DIV 12 31 60 90 101 101 66 32 46 40 0 14 39 32 28 79 64 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -3 -6 -9 -9 -10 -9 -15 -16 0 0 5 5 8 10 LAND (KM) 1618 1613 1512 1418 1337 1215 1139 1017 813 662 455 290 281 323 423 517 540 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 11 10 10 9 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 33 37 34 49 57 54 76 50 64 63 76 69 65 68 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 31. 38. 45. 49. 52. 53. 51. 50. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 16. 19. 27. 32. 34. 31. 37. 40. 38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. -0. -4. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 22. 34. 43. 47. 54. 56. 63. 70. 75. 75. 81. 84. 82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 37.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 09/05/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.94 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 22.5% 12.2% 8.9% 6.6% 11.3% 13.6% 27.4% Logistic: 4.1% 16.3% 7.9% 2.4% 1.2% 3.8% 4.9% 12.5% Bayesian: 1.4% 17.6% 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 1.7% 6.5% 9.9% Consensus: 3.1% 18.8% 8.2% 3.8% 2.6% 5.6% 8.3% 16.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 46.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 09/05/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 09/05/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 44 52 64 73 77 84 86 93 100 105 105 111 114 112 18HR AGO 30 29 34 40 48 60 69 73 80 82 89 96 101 101 107 110 108 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 40 52 61 65 72 74 81 88 93 93 99 102 100 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 28 40 49 53 60 62 69 76 81 81 87 90 88 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT