* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/06/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 61 69 76 84 90 91 98 99 103 105 111 113 115 113 115 V (KT) LAND 45 52 61 69 76 84 90 91 98 99 103 105 111 113 115 113 115 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 60 67 72 82 91 100 108 112 114 117 121 123 120 117 115 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 11 9 4 6 14 9 15 8 14 6 13 10 14 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 7 7 7 3 1 3 -1 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 1 7 SHEAR DIR 66 65 67 71 70 344 274 282 265 289 303 301 310 288 321 298 316 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 150 154 154 156 161 161 160 161 163 166 169 167 162 162 161 156 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -50.2 -49.6 -49.5 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 63 63 63 64 66 66 67 68 67 69 64 63 60 61 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 22 24 25 24 26 26 31 34 37 39 44 46 48 49 52 850 MB ENV VOR 54 50 50 48 49 58 53 41 43 35 49 45 68 67 84 86 110 200 MB DIV 104 103 75 101 95 36 31 44 49 29 45 34 27 49 37 33 51 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -10 -9 -14 -11 -15 -16 -8 -5 -4 4 7 7 13 15 LAND (KM) 1407 1347 1294 1242 1203 1084 861 707 499 351 324 338 434 520 535 574 624 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.7 16.7 17.7 18.9 19.9 20.9 21.7 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.4 43.7 45.0 46.2 47.4 49.7 52.3 54.8 57.2 59.4 61.6 63.5 65.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 59 61 50 58 63 54 59 62 81 80 73 70 70 43 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. 37. 34. 31. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 8. 9. 15. 19. 24. 26. 31. 32. 36. 35. 36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 15. 11. 5. -0. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 24. 31. 39. 45. 47. 53. 54. 58. 60. 66. 68. 70. 68. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.3 42.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/06/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 10.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.69 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.58 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 45.6% 28.5% 10.8% 9.8% 21.2% 31.3% 53.9% Logistic: 13.5% 25.2% 13.6% 4.5% 1.6% 8.4% 13.0% 14.2% Bayesian: 14.3% 27.0% 30.6% 3.0% 2.5% 18.6% 57.5% 11.0% Consensus: 11.7% 32.6% 24.2% 6.1% 4.7% 16.0% 33.9% 26.4% DTOPS: 32.0% 60.0% 26.0% 15.0% 5.0% 18.0% 36.0% 89.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/06/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/06/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 9( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 52 61 69 76 84 90 91 98 99 103 105 111 113 115 113 115 18HR AGO 45 44 53 61 68 76 82 83 90 91 95 97 103 105 107 105 107 12HR AGO 45 42 41 49 56 64 70 71 78 79 83 85 91 93 95 93 95 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 42 50 56 57 64 65 69 71 77 79 81 79 81 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT