* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/07/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 114 118 118 117 112 110 110 115 117 117 121 124 119 113 114 108 V (KT) LAND 105 114 118 118 117 112 110 110 115 117 117 121 124 119 113 114 108 V (KT) LGEM 105 116 120 121 120 117 116 117 119 122 120 118 119 117 113 108 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 10 12 10 17 10 11 12 12 15 16 14 15 18 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 4 3 1 3 -2 -3 -7 -5 -5 -2 0 2 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 333 241 234 259 247 241 259 256 294 291 299 297 311 304 292 285 250 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.3 29.8 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 29.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 165 165 164 166 171 170 170 170 164 156 157 155 151 153 135 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -50.5 -50.6 -49.7 -49.8 -49.2 -49.0 -47.8 -48.0 -47.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 59 59 61 60 61 60 59 57 56 60 62 63 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 25 25 24 26 28 29 34 37 38 42 45 47 48 51 51 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 34 23 18 12 10 19 23 41 52 70 93 105 131 123 132 200 MB DIV -6 -1 11 39 51 -17 -5 0 15 3 47 38 40 42 85 49 120 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -7 -9 -12 -7 -2 -3 2 0 0 0 3 7 15 23 24 LAND (KM) 1012 921 845 795 692 521 422 411 401 408 461 531 568 596 654 755 925 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.7 20.6 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.4 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.7 51.9 53.1 54.2 55.3 57.3 59.2 60.7 62.1 63.3 64.5 65.6 66.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 60 57 51 56 63 63 71 89 87 88 73 60 64 48 28 31 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -17. -20. -23. -30. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 7. 5. 4. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 2. 8. 12. 13. 18. 22. 23. 24. 27. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 13. 13. 12. 7. 5. 5. 10. 12. 12. 16. 19. 14. 8. 9. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.6 50.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/07/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 16.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.32 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.24 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 542.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.9% 44.0% 36.5% 26.2% 11.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 24.5% 12.2% 9.1% 4.6% 1.1% 4.0% 5.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 16.8% 1.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 26.7% 19.1% 15.8% 10.3% 4.2% 5.5% 1.8% 0.3% DTOPS: 83.0% 99.0% 99.0% 97.0% 86.0% 87.0% 66.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/07/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/07/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 32( 50) 32( 66) 30( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 27 34( 52) 25( 64) 34( 76) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 114 118 118 117 112 110 110 115 117 117 121 124 119 113 114 108 18HR AGO 105 104 108 108 107 102 100 100 105 107 107 111 114 109 103 104 98 12HR AGO 105 102 101 101 100 95 93 93 98 100 100 104 107 102 96 97 91 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 89 87 87 92 94 94 98 101 96 90 91 85 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 81 79 79 84 86 86 90 93 88 82 83 77 IN 6HR 105 114 105 99 96 90 88 88 93 95 95 99 102 97 91 92 86 IN 12HR 105 114 118 109 103 99 97 97 102 104 104 108 111 106 100 101 95