* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/07/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 118 112 106 100 87 74 61 46 35 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 118 112 106 100 87 74 61 46 35 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 116 106 97 89 74 62 51 42 36 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 6 9 8 7 2 6 9 12 15 22 25 28 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -5 -3 -3 0 1 1 8 14 15 14 8 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 62 63 41 49 106 208 253 224 232 240 229 231 237 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.5 26.4 25.9 25.9 24.0 23.9 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.2 23.6 23.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 141 129 124 124 103 102 87 88 89 91 94 93 98 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.9 -52.7 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 77 73 71 67 63 59 55 51 45 37 28 22 18 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 37 37 38 36 34 31 27 24 22 19 16 12 10 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 108 104 105 113 114 99 76 29 20 0 -4 -12 1 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 1 13 37 77 41 -17 6 21 -19 -14 -8 -5 -24 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -9 -7 -2 0 1 8 8 7 9 0 3 -3 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 920 966 1005 1070 1117 1201 1289 1378 1362 1388 1459 1566 1701 1860 1829 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.9 21.2 22.5 23.7 24.7 25.3 25.5 25.5 25.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.6 118.0 119.3 120.7 122.0 124.4 126.4 128.0 129.0 130.3 131.6 133.1 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 12 10 8 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -11. -23. -37. -51. -65. -76. -87. -95. -101. -104. -105. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. 0. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 9. 6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. -11. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -20. -22. -26. -29. -31. -30. -30. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -25. -38. -50. -64. -79. -90. -101. -109. -114. -118. -121. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.4 116.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/07/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/07/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##