* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/08/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 47 53 58 63 72 76 84 87 89 86 84 83 82 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 47 53 58 63 72 76 84 87 89 86 84 83 82 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 47 51 55 60 65 71 77 78 75 72 72 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 12 13 18 18 18 21 25 19 19 27 20 9 22 35 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 2 0 1 11 0 -1 0 5 -2 -1 -5 0 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 214 226 244 254 286 297 249 233 217 194 206 201 204 266 253 215 221 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.9 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.2 28.7 28.2 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 143 138 131 136 143 141 145 139 147 139 136 137 133 126 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.1 -50.4 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.0 1.8 0.7 1.9 1.8 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 49 52 53 54 53 55 58 61 61 60 60 61 57 53 54 57 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 18 19 20 22 24 29 31 36 38 41 40 39 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR 91 94 99 90 75 70 76 69 68 61 77 96 90 95 79 83 96 200 MB DIV 1 5 5 11 40 44 59 39 40 33 41 27 15 36 -17 45 -11 700-850 TADV 9 11 13 9 8 11 4 7 10 4 4 6 5 2 8 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1202 1378 1553 1706 1843 2061 2258 2330 2282 2282 2233 2047 1862 1704 1562 1395 1194 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.7 20.0 21.3 23.1 24.8 26.6 28.5 30.2 31.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.6 30.2 31.8 33.1 34.5 36.8 38.8 40.0 41.1 41.8 42.2 42.5 42.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 9 10 9 9 8 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 25 31 19 26 34 30 22 16 29 22 10 10 8 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 26. 26. 23. 20. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 16. 22. 25. 27. 24. 22. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 28. 37. 41. 49. 52. 54. 51. 49. 48. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.6 28.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/08/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.65 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 14.0% 9.4% 7.8% 5.2% 9.5% 10.4% 12.6% Logistic: 2.6% 5.2% 2.9% 1.8% 0.6% 2.6% 2.8% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 7.1% 4.4% 3.2% 1.9% 4.1% 4.4% 5.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/08/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 47 53 58 63 72 76 84 87 89 86 84 83 82 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 44 50 55 60 69 73 81 84 86 83 81 80 79 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 44 49 54 63 67 75 78 80 77 75 74 73 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 35 40 45 54 58 66 69 71 68 66 65 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT