* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/09/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 59 54 49 39 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 64 59 54 49 39 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 63 56 51 46 38 32 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 6 4 9 14 13 13 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -2 2 0 5 15 14 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 61 97 171 240 241 218 213 229 228 231 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 23.8 23.8 23.7 23.2 22.3 22.4 22.6 22.7 22.8 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 101 101 99 93 83 83 86 87 88 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.9 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 66 64 58 51 46 42 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 28 26 25 22 20 17 15 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 79 63 56 50 27 5 -16 -12 -27 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 47 18 -2 9 5 9 -20 -13 -11 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 1 1 6 6 4 6 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1138 1175 1222 1243 1270 1318 1320 1373 1479 1567 1654 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.7 23.4 24.4 24.9 24.9 24.4 24.2 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.3 125.3 126.0 126.7 127.7 128.6 129.5 130.5 131.6 132.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 8 6 4 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -17. -25. -33. -39. -43. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -17. -22. -25. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -21. -31. -41. -51. -59. -65. -69. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.8 123.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/09/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/09/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##