* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/09/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 104 107 109 112 115 118 122 124 125 126 123 111 107 96 78 V (KT) LAND 100 101 104 107 109 112 115 118 122 124 125 126 123 111 107 96 78 V (KT) LGEM 100 101 102 104 107 113 119 124 123 122 121 118 110 97 84 67 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 8 7 8 6 10 7 9 14 14 14 28 36 37 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 1 2 -2 0 0 -2 2 1 -3 1 -2 4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 221 241 246 262 295 270 305 299 289 277 290 269 265 249 221 232 237 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.3 28.0 26.3 26.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 167 167 166 166 168 166 163 161 162 165 157 137 118 122 132 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -49.7 -49.7 -49.3 -49.5 -48.6 -48.9 -47.7 -47.6 -48.0 -48.7 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.0 1.8 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 55 53 53 53 52 53 54 54 58 59 63 61 58 43 25 21 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 29 30 31 34 36 39 42 43 45 48 49 46 48 45 37 850 MB ENV VOR 2 1 2 6 10 21 32 41 61 56 87 99 130 141 177 146 125 200 MB DIV 3 -2 -29 2 29 -3 71 -21 43 27 104 83 88 60 34 13 30 700-850 TADV -2 -8 -3 -4 -2 0 2 1 1 8 13 12 15 10 -1 3 1 LAND (KM) 442 433 438 438 441 460 474 519 563 568 615 724 857 953 777 719 563 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.6 23.0 23.4 23.6 24.0 24.7 25.9 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.8 59.5 60.1 60.8 61.5 62.7 63.9 64.9 66.0 66.9 67.5 67.9 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 8 10 11 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 64 71 75 76 75 80 75 64 61 63 51 44 37 13 0 6 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -11. -15. -18. -18. -22. -26. -33. -41. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 18. 20. 23. 24. 18. 20. 14. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 23. 11. 7. -4. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.5 58.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/09/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.45 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.22 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 685.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.22 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 15.3% 11.1% 9.4% 7.5% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 7.3% 7.4% 6.0% 2.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.7% 1.8% 3.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 8.1% 7.3% 5.4% 3.5% 4.8% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 22.0% 38.0% 27.0% 11.0% 4.0% 24.0% 20.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/09/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/09/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 26( 42) 28( 58) 30( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 15( 25) 15( 36) 19( 49) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 104 107 109 112 115 118 122 124 125 126 123 111 107 96 78 18HR AGO 100 99 102 105 107 110 113 116 120 122 123 124 121 109 105 94 76 12HR AGO 100 97 96 99 101 104 107 110 114 116 117 118 115 103 99 88 70 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 95 98 101 105 107 108 109 106 94 90 79 61 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 84 87 90 94 96 97 98 95 83 79 68 50 IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 82 85 88 92 94 95 96 93 81 77 66 48 IN 12HR 100 101 104 95 89 85 88 91 95 97 98 99 96 84 80 69 51