* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/10/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 95 102 106 112 116 120 120 122 121 117 106 105 97 76 60 V (KT) LAND 90 90 95 102 106 112 116 120 120 122 121 117 106 105 97 76 60 V (KT) LGEM 90 89 91 96 101 110 117 121 121 121 120 113 98 86 71 49 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 6 6 5 7 4 12 10 15 17 21 35 42 41 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 4 -3 -1 2 7 6 8 -3 SHEAR DIR 240 247 242 252 250 301 288 273 266 300 266 251 242 212 218 214 221 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.1 28.0 26.5 26.7 26.9 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 168 166 168 165 163 162 162 165 153 137 119 122 124 104 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -49.7 -49.8 -49.4 -49.5 -48.3 -48.3 -47.5 -47.4 -47.0 -46.8 -47.0 -48.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.3 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 5 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 53 55 53 52 53 53 53 58 60 65 61 58 50 34 28 24 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 31 34 35 37 39 42 43 46 48 48 46 50 50 40 33 850 MB ENV VOR 4 13 14 21 25 30 42 61 62 83 97 132 146 184 130 34 -22 200 MB DIV 6 3 25 11 2 62 -14 59 66 92 94 118 63 47 -10 20 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 3 9 12 12 13 13 2 0 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 423 425 434 454 470 494 525 588 577 630 745 872 939 803 743 610 368 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.4 23.8 24.2 25.0 26.3 27.9 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.2 61.0 61.7 62.3 63.0 64.2 65.3 66.1 67.2 67.9 68.1 68.3 68.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 75 77 76 78 80 71 62 61 60 43 44 30 13 1 4 10 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -16. -21. -27. -34. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 14. 16. 20. 22. 22. 17. 21. 20. 5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. -0. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 5. 12. 16. 22. 26. 30. 30. 32. 31. 27. 16. 15. 7. -14. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 21.2 60.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/10/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.55 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 621.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.28 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 15.3% 10.8% 9.3% 7.8% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 4.2% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 7.4% 5.9% 4.6% 3.2% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 40.0% 76.0% 64.0% 28.0% 11.0% 49.0% 22.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/10/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/10/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 17( 27) 27( 47) 30( 63) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 10 20( 28) 42( 58) 61( 84) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 95 102 106 112 116 120 120 122 121 117 106 105 97 76 60 18HR AGO 90 89 94 101 105 111 115 119 119 121 120 116 105 104 96 75 59 12HR AGO 90 87 86 93 97 103 107 111 111 113 112 108 97 96 88 67 51 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 84 90 94 98 98 100 99 95 84 83 75 54 38 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 77 81 85 85 87 86 82 71 70 62 41 25 IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 73 77 81 81 83 82 78 67 66 58 37 21 IN 12HR 90 90 95 86 80 76 80 84 84 86 85 81 70 69 61 40 24