* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/10/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 70 76 80 83 85 85 82 80 74 70 65 62 61 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 67 70 76 80 83 85 85 82 80 74 70 65 62 61 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 65 67 71 75 77 76 74 73 70 66 61 56 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 20 19 20 21 17 11 10 8 15 12 8 17 17 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 0 1 2 -1 2 0 -5 0 2 -2 0 2 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 235 230 223 205 195 192 160 97 4 266 228 278 353 27 72 95 182 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 137 137 135 135 136 138 133 129 126 123 121 120 118 116 112 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.5 1.1 1.8 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 59 56 56 57 55 59 57 53 49 53 48 41 33 30 28 30 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 24 25 29 31 33 35 36 36 37 35 34 32 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 35 29 21 40 41 50 46 36 30 26 25 50 34 12 -4 -20 -31 200 MB DIV 105 62 75 55 43 19 31 17 14 11 28 -29 -19 -53 -47 -4 16 700-850 TADV 9 6 9 9 11 6 6 5 3 8 3 0 0 -3 0 1 7 LAND (KM) 2340 2341 2343 2368 2396 2282 2053 1858 1690 1582 1504 1442 1390 1370 1378 1384 1377 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.4 25.2 26.1 26.9 28.6 30.8 32.7 34.2 35.3 36.2 36.9 37.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.1 40.4 40.6 40.6 40.7 40.7 40.9 41.1 41.6 41.7 41.6 41.6 41.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 34 22 16 14 13 12 13 10 7 7 5 5 5 5 4 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. 17. 14. 10. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 30. 27. 25. 19. 15. 10. 7. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.5 40.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/10/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.34 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 17.0% 11.6% 9.0% 6.3% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 5.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 4.5% 0.9% 0.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 7.7% 5.1% 3.7% 2.2% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 11.0% 27.0% 16.0% 10.0% 3.0% 12.0% 10.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/10/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/10/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 5( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 67 70 76 80 83 85 85 82 80 74 70 65 62 61 18HR AGO 55 54 58 62 65 71 75 78 80 80 77 75 69 65 60 57 56 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 58 64 68 71 73 73 70 68 62 58 53 50 49 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 54 58 61 63 63 60 58 52 48 43 40 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT