* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/11/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 109 113 115 117 117 118 117 121 114 109 99 94 82 65 48 38 V (KT) LAND 105 109 113 115 117 117 118 117 121 114 109 99 94 82 65 48 35 V (KT) LGEM 105 109 112 115 116 119 120 117 116 112 100 92 79 63 44 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 11 6 6 12 8 10 5 15 21 22 41 38 34 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 3 2 -4 -1 8 10 7 -7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 206 212 219 263 263 268 253 278 245 256 238 225 198 175 164 182 211 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.3 28.9 28.1 26.8 26.1 27.9 20.0 18.1 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 162 162 162 160 154 151 156 150 139 123 116 137 81 74 76 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -49.9 -49.8 -49.5 -49.3 -49.0 -48.5 -48.0 -47.4 -47.0 -46.6 -46.0 -46.8 -47.9 -48.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.8 2.7 2.5 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 54 55 56 58 62 62 60 58 50 41 43 54 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 37 37 39 41 43 44 49 47 49 47 49 46 38 29 24 850 MB ENV VOR 30 35 35 39 47 50 66 72 94 114 135 161 179 172 157 146 101 200 MB DIV 47 44 31 54 39 10 52 80 110 112 119 90 56 87 73 77 21 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -1 0 3 1 6 12 12 14 11 28 17 2 -9 -8 LAND (KM) 460 473 489 504 527 594 626 663 762 895 984 853 796 514 285 53 -13 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.5 24.0 24.4 25.0 26.2 27.9 29.9 32.3 34.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.9 62.5 63.1 63.7 64.3 65.5 66.5 67.1 67.7 67.9 67.7 67.4 67.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 8 9 11 13 14 16 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 81 79 77 70 64 58 58 49 44 31 19 2 0 32 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 4. 1. -6. -13. -19. -25. -32. -36. -42. -48. -54. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. 14. 16. 20. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -10. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 15. 12. 14. 10. 13. 6. -6. -19. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 12. 16. 9. 4. -6. -11. -23. -40. -57. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 22.3 61.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/11/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.46 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.32 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 710.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.19 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.90 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.6% 21.7% 17.3% 10.6% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.0% 20.4% 19.1% 11.7% 4.2% 3.7% 2.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 17.1% 5.0% 9.2% 2.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 19.5% 15.7% 15.2% 8.3% 4.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 23.0% 33.0% 25.0% 9.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/11/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/11/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 30( 49) 32( 65) 32( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 22 32( 47) 62( 80) 55( 91) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 109 113 115 117 117 118 117 121 114 109 99 94 82 65 48 35 18HR AGO 105 104 108 110 112 112 113 112 116 109 104 94 89 77 60 43 30 12HR AGO 105 102 101 103 105 105 106 105 109 102 97 87 82 70 53 36 23 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 97 97 98 97 101 94 89 79 74 62 45 28 15 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 86 87 86 90 83 78 68 63 51 34 17 DIS IN 6HR 105 109 100 94 91 90 91 90 94 87 82 72 67 55 38 21 DIS IN 12HR 105 109 113 104 98 94 95 94 98 91 86 76 71 59 42 25 DIS