* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/11/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 48 54 57 57 53 51 49 48 47 48 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 48 54 57 57 53 51 49 48 47 48 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 37 43 49 53 53 51 48 46 46 48 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 12 11 13 13 16 18 20 31 24 24 23 18 8 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -7 -7 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 1 -1 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 87 81 64 74 70 65 68 110 110 85 56 45 18 9 342 297 227 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 153 153 153 153 153 152 150 150 149 154 154 155 154 159 166 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 65 65 74 77 79 77 77 78 77 71 69 64 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 22 29 19 16 28 25 40 54 60 63 52 38 28 12 26 50 200 MB DIV -6 -13 -5 7 5 26 33 73 76 158 165 147 102 85 24 49 9 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 0 -2 -4 1 1 0 -2 -2 -4 -6 -8 -21 24 LAND (KM) 1472 1563 1640 1704 1768 1783 1733 1670 1594 1540 1528 1623 1711 1792 1606 1277 987 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.2 11.9 11.4 11.0 11.3 13.0 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.0 31.8 32.5 33.1 33.7 34.7 35.9 37.1 38.3 39.1 39.4 39.5 40.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 6 5 5 6 7 5 3 5 11 17 19 22 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 24 26 29 31 29 25 26 27 30 38 49 55 32 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 24. 34. 43. 50. 56. 60. 62. 61. 60. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -10. -19. -25. -29. -31. -29. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 23. 29. 33. 32. 28. 26. 24. 23. 22. 23. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 31.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/11/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.1% 9.2% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 8.5% 4.8% 0.9% 0.3% 3.0% 10.6% 29.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 7.9% Consensus: 1.7% 9.1% 5.0% 2.3% 0.1% 1.4% 8.0% 12.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/11/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 39 48 54 57 57 53 51 49 48 47 48 52 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 37 46 52 55 55 51 49 47 46 45 46 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 42 48 51 51 47 45 43 42 41 42 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 34 40 43 43 39 37 35 34 33 34 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT